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If this is right, it 36 If this were an emerald it would be grue indicates there is something very wrong with the Goodmanian analysis of justification. For on that analysis, to be justified is to [be in reflective equilibrium]. But few of us are prepared to say that if the gambler’s fallacy [which is the fallacy to infer that, for example, in a game of craps the likelihood of rolling a seven with a pair of dice increases each time a non-seven is rolled] is in reflective equilibrium for a person, then his inferences that accord with that principle are justified.

His interesting pragmatist epistemology, which combined influences from the German (or Austrian) “positivists” with the pragmatism of Peirce, William James and John Dewey, is often overlooked. It was this aspect of Lewis’s philosophy, however, that influenced Goodman. In his famous “The Pragmatic Element in Knowledge”, Lewis summarizes his pragmatist epistemology as follows: In short, if human knowledge at its best, in the application of mathematics and in the well-developed sciences, is typical of knowledge in general, then the picture we must frame of it is this: that there is in it an element of conceptual interpretation, theoretically always separable from any application to experience and capable of being studied in abstraction.

Xyz found at place yxz date yzx (yzx ≤ t) is grue! 12 All of these grue-evidence statements taken together confirm the hypothesis that all emeralds are grue, L4, and they confirm this hypothesis to the exact same degree as the green-evidence statements confirmed the hypothesis that all emeralds are green. But if that is the case, then the following two predictions are also confirmed to the same degree: (P1) The next emerald examined after t will be green. (P2) The next emerald examined after t will be grue.

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Covert operations of the NSA by John St Clair Akwei


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